Publications

 

Read our research papers associated with the UKESM project.

2026

The North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and Phytoplankton Bloom Under Potential Future Climate Scenarios

2025

Biosphere–atmosphere related processes influence trace-gas and aerosol satellite–model biases
Methane emissions from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
Results of the second Ice Shelf – Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

2024

Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Budgets of Europe: Trends, Interannual and Spatial Variability, and Their Drivers
Effect of sampling bias on global estimates of ocean carbon export
Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
First validation of high-resolution satellite-derived methane emissions from an active gas leak in the UK
Global nitrous oxide budget (1980–2020)
Global-Scale Evaluation of Coastal Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in a Fully Coupled Earth System Model
Investigation of the impact of satellite vertical sensitivity on long-term retrieved lower-tropospheric ozone trends
Niche-dependent forest and savanna fragmentation in Tropical South America during the Last Glacial Maximum
Observing the SO2 and Sulfate Aerosol Plumes From the 2022 Hunga Eruption With the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)
Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO2 Sink and CH4 and N2O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top‐Down and Bottom‐Up Methods
Quantifying large methane emissions from the Nord Stream pipeline gas leak of September 2022 using IASI satellite observations and inverse modelling
Recent methane surges reveal heightened emissions from tropical inundated areas
Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020
The 2019 Raikoke eruption as a testbed used by the Volcano Response group for rapid assessment of volcanic atmospheric impacts

2023

A blended TROPOMI CGOSAT satellite data product for atmospheric methane using machine learning to correct retrieval biases
Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications
Atmospheric data support a multi-decadal shift in the global methane budget towards natural tropical emissions
Description and evaluation of the JULES-ES set-up for ISIMIP2b
East Asian methane emissions inferred from high-resolution inversions of GOSAT and TROPOMI observations: a comparative and evaluative analysis
Historical Ocean Heat Uptake in Two Pairs of CMIP6 Models: Global and Regional Perspectives
Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021
Observation-derived 2010-2019 trends in methane emissions and intensities from US oil and fields tied to metrics
Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre
RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections
Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels
Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models
UKESM1.1: development and evaluation of an updated configuration of the UK Earth System Model
Using a deep neural network to detect methane point sources and quantify emissions from PRISMA hyperspectral satellite images

2022

An integrated analysis of contemporary methane emissions and concentration trends over China using in situ and satellite observations and model simulations
Apportionment of the Pre-Industrial to Present-Day Climate Forcing by Methane Using UKESM1: The Role of the Cloud Radiative Effect
Attribution of the 2020 surge in atmospheric methane by inverse analysis of GOSAT observations
Biological Carbon Pump Sequestration Efficiency in the North Atlantic: A Leaky or a Long-Term Sink?
Comparative multifractal analysis of methane gas concentration time series in India and regions within India
Description and Evaluation of an Emission-Driven and Fully Coupled Methane Cycle in UKESM1
Evaluation of wetland CH4 in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model using satellite observations
Large Methane Emission Fluxes Observed From Tropical Wetlands in Zambia
Methane emissions in the United States, Canada, and Mexico: evaluation of national methane emission inventories and 2010-2017 sectoral trends by inverse analysis of in situ (GLOBALVIEWplus CH4 ObsPack) and satellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations
MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields tree cover needs calibrating in tropical savannas
Nocturnal plant respiration is under strong non-temperature control
Observations of aerosol–vapor pressure deficit–evaporative fraction coupling over India
Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake
Remotely sensed carotenoid dynamics improve modelling photosynthetic phenology in conifer and deciduous forests
Retrieval of greenhouse gases from GOSAT and GOSAT-2 using the FOCAL algorithm
The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet
The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100
The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in the 1850-1985 Strengthening of the AMOC in CMIP6 Historical Simulations
The simulation of mineral dust in the United Kingdom Earth System Model UKESM1
Tropical methane emissions explain large fraction of recent changes in global atmospheric methane growth rate
Very large fluxes of methane measured above Bolivian seasonal wetlands

2021

2010–2015 North American methane emissions, sectoral contributions, and trends: a high-resolution inversion of GOSAT observations of atmospheric methane
A multi-data assessment of land use and land cover emissions from Brazil during 2000-2019.
Accelerating methane growth rate from 2010 to 2017: leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia
Arctic Change 2020 Abstracts
Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1
Attribution of the accelerating increase in atmospheric methane during 2010–2018 by inverse analysis of GOSAT observations
Coupling the UK Earth System Model to Dynamic Models of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. 
Dry corridors opened by fire and low CO2 in Amazonian rainforest during the Last Glacial Maximum.
Estimates of North African Methane Emissions from 2010 to 2017 Using GOSAT Observations
Evaluating the physical and biogeochemical state of the global ocean component of UKESM1 in CMIP6 historical simulations
Evaluation of SO2, SO42- and an updated SO2 dry deposition parameterization in the United Kingdom Earth System Model
Global distribution of methane emissions: a comparative inverse analysis of observations from the TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite instruments
Global methane budget and trend, 2010–2017: complementarity of inverse analyses using in situ (GLOBALVIEWplus CH4 ObsPack) and satellite (GOSAT) observations
Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography
How Robust Is the Apparent Break‐Down of Northern High‐Latitude Temperature Control on Spring Carbon Uptake?
Large and increasing methane emissions from eastern Amazonia derived from satellite data, 2010–2018
Large Methane Emissions From the Pantanal During Rising Water‐Levels Revealed by Regularly Measured Lower Troposphere CH4 Profiles
Methane Growth Rate Estimation and Its Causes in Western Canada Using Satellite Observations
Monitoring Greenhouse Gases from Space
On the Treatment of Soil Water Stress in GCM Simulations of Vegetation Physiology
Rain-fed pulses of methane from East Africa during 20182019 contributed to atmospheric growth rate
Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison.
South American fires and their impacts on ecosystems increase with continued emissions
Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area
Technical note: Low meteorological influence found in 2019 Amazonia fires
The added value of satellite observations of methane forunderstanding the contemporary methane budget
The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP
The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as seen in the UK Earth System Model
Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

2020

A decade of GOSAT Proxy satellite CH4 observations
A New TanSat XCO2 Global Product towards Climate Studies
Aerosol‐Forced AMOC Changes in CMIP6 Historical Simulations
Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study
Description and evaluation of aerosol in UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP6 historical simulations
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – technical overview
Earth system music: music generated from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1)
Evaluating the simulated radiative forcings, aerosol properties, and stratospheric warmings from the 1963 Mt Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol clouds
Exploring constraints on a wetland methane emission ensemble (WetCHARTs) using GOSAT observations
Historical Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for CMIP6
Implementation of U.K. Earth System Models for CMIP6
Modeling the Seasonality and Controls of Nitrous Oxide Emissions on the Northwest European Continental Shelf
Modelling the effects of CO2 on C3 and C4 grass competition during the mid-Pleistocene transition in South Africa
Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project
Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models
Spin‐up of UK Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1) for CMIP6
The Evaluation of the North Atlantic Climate System in UKESM1 Historical Simulations for CMIP6
The Significance of Fast Radiative Transfer for Hyperspectral SWIR XCO2 Retrievals
U.K. Community Earth System Modeling for CMIP6

2019

Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition
An analytical derivation of ice-shelf basal melt based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes An analytical derivation of ice-shelf basal melt based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes
Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration
Description of the resolution hierarchy of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 model as used in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments
Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1
How can the First ISLSCP Field Experiment contribute to present-day efforts to evaluate water stress in JULESv5.0?
How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes
Representation of fire, land-use change and vegetation dynamics in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn4.9 (JULES)
Studying the impact of biomass burning aerosol radiative and climate effects on the Amazon rainforest productivity with an Earth system model
UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model

2018

BGC-val: a model- and grid-independent Python toolkit to evaluate marine biogeochemical models
Improved Aerosol Processes and Effective Radiative Forcing in HadGEM3 and UKESM1
Modelling marine DOC degradation time scales
Preindustrial Control Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for CMIP6
Technical note: A simple theoretical model framework to describe plant stomatal “sluggishness” in response to elevated ozone concentrations
The Low‐Resolution Version of HadGEM3 GC3.1: Development and Evaluation for Global Climate
Vegetation distribution and terrestrial carbon cycle in a carbon cycle configuration of JULES4.6 with new plant functional types

2017

The Cost of Reducing the North Atlantic Ocean Biological Carbon Pump